Friday, October 14, 2022

3QTR22 UO Matrix via Applied Indexation

 


In advance: 3QTR22 <U/O> Matrix via Applied Indexation is currently available in multi-sheet format illustrating structured ecosystem composition and supply chain verticals within publicly traded Clean Energy Subindustry Benchmark ETF - PBW.

>> PBW total return: 3Q22 6.2%, YTD 2022 -35.9%; performance dispersion 193.5%/-88.8% (101322).

>> SPX 12-month Fwd PE=15.8/3Q22 v. 17.5/2Q22, 19.0/1Q22, 21.1/4Q21 (FactSet); CAPE 27.5 from 31.1/34.6/38.5, mean 17.0 (Shiller).

>> PBW Fwd adj. PE=31.9 Beta=1.5 versus 30.4/1.5, 34.4/1.4 and 34.4/1.4 sequentially (40.0 max.; N/A totals 56.6% based on portfolio weight and 59.8% of count, 10.4% on market capitalization; Large-cap 20.3%, Mid-cap 43.8%, Small-cap 35.9%).

<U/O> Matrix via Applied Indexation segments include Wind, Solar, Fuel Cells, Smart Grid, Water, LED, Biofuel, Automotive, Natural Gas, Storage and Aviation plus further classifications detailing component member assignments based on corporate business segment operations (12 segments, 61 classifications, 267 single and multi-listed component members; n=82).

<U/O> Applied Indexation methodology introduces the concept of business segment operations as a means to highlight the modularity of corporate profiles, producing deeper comparables by deconstructing company revenue lines then linking resultant business segment operations across asset classes and capitalization within a designated composite benchmark portfolio in order to improve peer group analytics and valuation; reference <U/O> Matrix - Establishing Predictive Value: Applied Indexation, Hierarchical Data Sets and Competitive Market Information slideshow tutorial (www.universalorbit.com).

Please message direct for product suite access and development considerations.


#EnergyComplex #CleanEnergy #Renewables #Strategy #PortfolioManagement #PortfolioStrategies #CorporateFinance #BSOs #Analytics




At Venn’s intersection, sets and subsets of competing interests endure. The dynamic principles of BSOs are three-fold: 1) multinational and Large-cap companies function as benchmark sector/industry/subindustry proxies based on scale (Alpha-Beta), 2) Small- and Mid-cap companies participate as competitive peers (Alpha) and, hence, acquisition candidates and 3) among subsets of 1) and 2) are companies provisioning multiple economic sectors, asset classes and geographies. Successful trading strategies (conventional, systematic, factor-based) and adaptive investable motifs (niche, thematic, megatrend) isolate Value in Growth, and Growth in Value, by aligning the prospective Alpha drivers directly associated with ecosystem composition and supply chain verticals.

Forward looking statements, estimates and certain information contained herein are based upon proprietary and non-proprietary research and other sources. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but are not assured as to accuracy. Past performance is not indicative of future results. There is neither representation nor warranty as to the current accuracy of, nor liability for, decisions based on such information. This content is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investing advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investment product. The author's opinions are subject to change without notice. No part of this product, related articles, publications or web-based content may be reproduced in any form or referred to in any other publication without express written permission of Universal Orbit © 2022 and David B. Kleinberg.


Tuesday, August 9, 2022

2QTR22 UO Matrix via Applied Indexation

 


In advance: 2QTR22 <U/O> Matrix via Applied Indexation is currently available in multi-sheet format illustrating structured ecosystem composition and supply chain verticals within publicly traded Clean Energy Subindustry Benchmark ETF - PBW.

>> PBW total return: 2Q22 -29.4%, YTD 2022 -16.7%; performance dispersion +93.2%/-83.9% (080522).

>> SPX 12-month Fwd PE=17.5/2Q22 v. 19.0/1Q22, 21.1/4Q21, 20.5/3Q21 (FactSet); CAPE 31.1 from 34.6/38.5/37.9, mean 17.0 (Shiller).

>> PBW Fwd adj. PE=30.4 Beta=1.5 versus 34.4/1.4, 34.4/1.4 and 33.2/1.4 sequentially (40.0 max.; N/A totals 58.6% based on portfolio weight and 61.7% of count, 14.0% on market capitalization; Large-cap 20.2%, Mid-cap 45.7%, Small-cap 34.4%).

<U/O> Applied Indexation methodology introduces the concept of business segment operations as a means to highlight the modularity of corporate profiles, producing deeper comparables by deconstructing a company’s revenue line then linking resultant business segment operations across asset classes and capitalization within a designated composite benchmark portfolio.

<U/O> Matrix via Applied Indexation segments include Wind, Solar, Fuel Cells, Smart Grid, Water, LED, Biofuel, Automotive, Natural Gas, Storage and Aviation plus further classifications detailing component member assignments based on corporate business segment operations (12 segments, 61 classifications, 256 single and multi-listed component members; n=81).

Please message direct for product suite access and development considerations.

--

<U/O> Matrix - Establishing Predictive Value: Applied Indexation, Hierarchical Data Sets and Competitive Market Information slideshow tutorial (click here) is developed with the intent to improve peer group analytics and valuation. The premise is to complement existing institutional portfolio strategies and lend Tier-2 Alpha and Alpha-Beta screening tools to effort outperformance in both up and down markets. A goal of this <U/O> Applied Indexation abstraction is to demonstrate the many persistent Venn-like qualities present throughout the capital markets which may be exploited for profitable portfolio positioning at distinct points of inflection.

While capital markets inefficiencies is not a new concept, perhaps the attributes of <U/O> Applied Indexation may be another useful tool for research teams and client driven solutions.


www.universalorbit.com


#EnergyComplex #CleanEnergy #Renewables #Strategy #PortfolioManagement #CorporateFinance #BSOs #Analytics



At Venn’s intersection, sets and subsets of competing interests endure. The dynamic principles of BSOs are three-fold: 1) multinational and Large-cap companies function as benchmark sector/industry/subindustry proxies based on scale (Alpha-Beta), 2) Small- and Mid-cap companies participate as competitive peers (Alpha) and, hence, acquisition candidates and 3) among subsets of 1) and 2) are companies provisioning multiple economic sectors, asset classes and geographies. Successful trading strategies (conventional, systematic, factor-based) and adaptive investable motifs (niche, thematic, megatrend) isolate Value in Growth, and Growth in Value, by aligning the prospective Alpha drivers directly associated with ecosystem composition and supply chain verticals.

Forward looking statements, estimates and certain information contained herein are based upon proprietary and non-proprietary research and other sources. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but are not assured as to accuracy. Past performance is not indicative of future results. There is neither representation nor warranty as to the current accuracy of, nor liability for, decisions based on such information. This content is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investing advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investment product. The author's opinions are subject to change without notice. No part of this product, related articles, publications or web-based content may be reproduced in any form or referred to in any other publication without express written permission of Universal Orbit © 2022 and David B. Kleinberg.



Tuesday, July 26, 2022

UO Matrix - Establishing Predictive Value: Applied Indexation, Hierarchical Data Sets and Competitive Market Information

 


In advance: <U/O> Matrix - Establishing Predictive Value: Applied Indexation, Hierarchical Data Sets and Competitive Market Information is currently available without restriction, developed with the intent to improve peer group analytics and valuation (click here).

<U/O> Applied Indexation methodology introduces the concept of business segment operations as a means to highlight the modularity of corporate profiles, producing deeper comparables by breaking down a company’s revenue line then linking resultant business segment operations across asset classes and capitalization within a designated composite benchmark portfolio.

The premise is to complement existing institutional portfolio strategies and lend Tier-2 Alpha and Alpha-Beta screening tools to effort outperformance in both up and down markets.

A goal of this <U/O> Applied Indexation abstraction is to demonstrate the many persistent Venn-like qualities present throughout the capital markets which may be exploited for profitable portfolio positioning at distinct points of inflection.

While capital markets inefficiencies is not a new concept, perhaps the attributes of <U/O> Applied Indexation may be another useful tool for research teams and client driven solutions.

Please message direct for product suite access or development considerations.


www.universalorbit.com


#EnergyComplex #CleanEnergy #Renewables #Strategy #PortfolioManagement #CorporateFinance #BSOs #Analytics



At Venn’s intersection, sets and subsets of competing interests endure. The dynamic principles of BSOs are three-fold: 1) multinational and Large-cap companies function as benchmark sector/industry/subindustry proxies based on scale (Alpha-Beta), 2) Small- and Mid-cap companies participate as competitive peers (Alpha) and, hence, acquisition candidates and 3) among subsets of 1) and 2) are companies provisioning multiple economic sectors, asset classes and geographies. Successful trading strategies (conventional, systematic, factor-based) and adaptive investable motifs (niche, thematic, megatrend) isolate Value in Growth, and Growth in Value, by aligning the prospective Alpha drivers directly associated with ecosystem composition and supply chain verticals.

Forward looking statements, estimates and certain information contained herein are based upon proprietary and non-proprietary research and other sources. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but are not assured as to accuracy. Past performance is not indicative of future results. There is neither representation nor warranty as to the current accuracy of, nor liability for, decisions based on such information. This content is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investing advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investment product. The author's opinions are subject to change without notice. No part of this product, related articles, publications or web-based content may be reproduced in any form or referred to in any other publication without express written permission of Universal Orbit © 2022 and David B. Kleinberg.


Tuesday, April 19, 2022

1QTR22 U/O Matrix via Applied Indexation


In advance: 1QTR22 <U/O> Matrix via Applied Indexation is currently available in multi-sheet format illustrating structured ecosystem composition and supply chain verticals within publicly traded Clean Energy Subindustry Benchmark ETF - PBW.

Iterative index applications of peer group analytics and valuation are demonstrated to provide effective Alpha and Alpha-Beta screens in a combined Renewables/Diversified Industrials/Technology sector-themed overlay. Segments include Wind, Solar, Fuel Cells, Smart Grid, Water, LED, Biofuel, Automotive, Natural Gas, Storage and Aviation plus further classifications detailing component member assignments based on corporate business segment operations (12 segments, 58 classifications, 243 single and multi-listed component members; n=78).

Transformative BSOs isolate sector/industry/subindustry drivers of valuation, peer-to-peer outgrowth and corporate revenue lines for execution of evolving dynamic portfolio strategies. Sentiment inflections and implicit correlations capture tiered catalysts (e.g. emerging technologies, sovereign/public policy, consumerism) for position build across investable long/short motifs: conventional, niche, thematic, megatrend, equity/corporates, value/growth and factor-based.

>> PBW performance: 1Q22 -8.3%, CY22 -18.1%; YTD dispersion +63.8%/-71.7% (041422).

>> SPX 12-month Fwd PE=19.0/1Q22 v. 21.1/4Q21, 20.5/3Q21, 21.4/2Q21 (FactSet); CAPE 34.6 from 38.5/37.9/38.6, mean 16.9 (Shiller).

>> PBW Fwd adj. PE=34.1 Beta=1.4 versus 34.4/1.4, 33.2/1.4 and 34.1/1.4 sequentially (40.0 individual maximum; N/A totals 62.6% based on portfolio weight and 62.8% of count, 13.0% on market capitalization; Large-cap 24.3%, Mid-cap 49.5%, Small-cap 26.2%).

Please message direct for product suite access and development considerations; reference <U/O> Applied Indexation …a brief tutorial. (here) for a voiceover slide show outlining adaptive proprietary methodology.


#EnergyComplex #CleanEnergy #Renewables #Strategy #PortfolioManagement #CorporateFinance #BSOs #Analytics


www.universalorbit.com




At Venn’s intersection, sets and subsets of competing interests endure. The dynamic principles of BSOs are three-fold: 1) multinational and Large-cap companies function as benchmark sector/industry/subindustry proxies based on scale (Alpha-Beta), 2) Small- and Mid-cap companies participate as competitive peers (Alpha) and, hence, acquisition candidates and 3) among subsets of 1) and 2) are companies provisioning multiple economic sectors, asset classes and geographies. Successful trading strategies (conventional, systematic, factor-based) and adaptive investable motifs (niche, thematic, megatrend) isolate Value in Growth, and Growth in Value, by aligning the prospective Alpha drivers directly associated with ecosystem composition and supply chain verticals.

Forward looking statements, estimates and certain information contained herein are based upon proprietary and non-proprietary research and other sources. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but are not assured as to accuracy. Past performance is not indicative of future results. There is neither representation nor warranty as to the current accuracy of, nor liability for, decisions based on such information. This content is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investing advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investment product. The author's opinions are subject to change without notice. No part of this product, related articles, publications or web-based content may be reproduced in any form or referred to in any other publication without express written permission of Universal Orbit © 2022 and David B. Kleinberg.


Wednesday, January 19, 2022

4QTR21 U/O Matrix via Applied Indexation

 

In advance: 4QTR21 <U/O> Matrix via Applied Indexation is currently available in multi-sheet format illustrating the structured ecosystem composition and supply chain verticals within publicly traded Clean Energy Subindustry Benchmark ETF PBW.

A combined Renewables/Diversified Industrials/Technology sector-themed overlay approach utilizes iterative index applications of peer group analytics and valuation to provide effective Alpha and Alpha-Beta screens. Segments include Wind, Solar, Fuel Cells, Smart Grid, Water, LED, Biofuel, Automotive, Natural Gas, Storage and Aviation plus further classifications detailing component member assignments based on corporate business segment operations (12 segments, 59 classifications, 76 single and multi-listed component members; n=248).

4Q21 PBW -6.8%, CY21 -29.8%; 12-mos. performance dispersion: +145.5%/-87.7% (011422).

PBW Fwd (adj.) PE=34.4 Beta=1.4 versus 33.2/1.4, 34.1/1.4 and 34.0/1.3 sequentially. SPX 12-month Fwd PE=21.1 v. 20.5/Q3, 21.4/Q2, 21.8/Q1 (FactSet); CAPE 38.5 from 37.9/38.6/37.6, mean 16.9 (Shiller).

Reference the tutorial tab at www.universalorbit.com for a voiceover slide show outlining sample adaptive methodology in tandem with blog post <U/O> Matrix - Establishing Predictive Value exercise. Investable motifs (long/short): conventional, thematic, megatrend, equity/corporates, value/growth and factor-based.

Please message direct with any questions or for product suite access and development considerations.

#Strategy #CleanEnergy #Renewables #CorporateFinance #BSOs #PortfolioManagement #Analytics


www.universalorbit.com



At Venn’s intersection, sets and subsets of competing interests endure. The dynamic principles of BSOs are three-fold: 1) multinational and Large-cap companies function as benchmark sector/industry/subindustry proxies based on scale (Alpha-Beta), 2) Small- and Mid-cap companies participate as competitive peers (Alpha) and, hence, acquisition candidates and 3) among subsets of 1) and 2) are companies provisioning multiple economic sectors, asset classes and geographies. Successful trading strategies (conventional, systematic, factor-based) and adaptive investable motifs (niche, thematic, megatrend) isolate Value in Growth, and Growth in Value, by aligning the prospective Alpha drivers directly associated with ecosystem and supply chain verticals.

Forward looking statements, estimates and certain information contained herein are based upon proprietary and non-proprietary research and other sources. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but are not assured as to accuracy. Past performance is not indicative of future results. There is neither representation nor warranty as to the current accuracy of, nor liability for, decisions based on such information. This content is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investing advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investment product. The author's opinions are subject to change without notice. No part of this product, related articles, publications or web-based content may be reproduced in any form or referred to in any other publication without express written permission of Universal Orbit © 2022 and David B. Kleinberg.


Thursday, October 28, 2021

U/O Applied Indexation …a brief tutorial.


Topical discussions regarding the nature of performance dispersion among Value and Growth equity indexes and, importantly, their constituents often ignore the inherent commonality of component member business segment operations (BSOs) across both baskets. Proprietary research suggests an approach to portfolio strategies isolating the Venn of capital markets offers an opportunity to exploit standard capital market delineations and enhance absolute return performance against respective benchmarks.

In examining the Clean Energy space for instance, introducing a Renewables/Diversified Industrials/Technology sector-themed overlay begins an iterative process creating a latticed framework to lever a combination of competitive market information (e.g., benchmark ETF - PBW) and applied indexation methodology. Corporate profile BSOs replace broad industry nomenclature assignments at this point, differentiated growth rates are observed and portfolio allocations are rationalized to readily improve peer group analytics and valuation.

For reference, 69 PBW (3QTR21) component members are selected from a of total 71 (21 designated industry groups) to develop effective Tier-2 Alpha/Alpha-Beta screens by populating 201 unique placements along 10 segments and 52 BSOs. To illustrate, simply click thru to Q3 b-platform release and replay of ‘<U/O> Applied Indexation …a brief tutorial.’ voiceover slide show (https://www.universalorbit.com/a-brief-tutorial).

PBW CY21 -18.9%, YTD performance dispersion: +453.5%/-82.4% (102721). 3Q21 -16.8%; capitalization (weight): Small-cap 25.9%, Mid-cap 48.7%, Large-cap 25.3%.

PBW Fwd (adj.) PE=33.2 Beta=1.4 versus 34.1/1.4, 34.0/1.3, 33.4/1.3 and 27.0/1.3 sequentially. SPX 12-month Fwd PE=21.0 v. 20.5/Q3, 21.4/Q2, 21.8/Q1, 18.3/5-yr (FactSet); CAPE 38.8 from 37.9/38.6/37.6/34.9, mean 16.9 (Shiller).

At Venn’s intersection, sets and subsets of competing interests endure. The dynamic principles of BSOs are three-fold: 1) multinational and Large-cap companies function as benchmark sector/industry/subindustry proxies based on scale (Alpha-Beta), 2) Small- and Mid-cap companies participate as competitive peers (Alpha) and, hence, acquisition candidates and 3) among subsets of 1) and 2) are companies provisioning multiple economic sectors, asset classes and geographies. Successful trading strategies (conventional, systematic, factor-based) and adaptive investable motifs (niche, thematic, megatrend) isolate Value in Growth, and Growth in Value, by aligning the prospective Alpha drivers directly associated with ecosystem and supply chain verticals.

Please message direct for product suite access and development considerations.


#Strategy #PortfolioManagement #CleanEnergy #Renewables #BSOs #CorporateFinance #Analytics




Forward looking statements, estimates and certain information contained herein are based upon proprietary and non-proprietary research and other sources. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but are not assured as to accuracy. Past performance is not indicative of future results. There is neither representation nor warranty as to the current accuracy of, nor liability for, decisions based on such information. This content is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investing advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investment product. The author's opinions are subject to change without notice. No part of this product, related articles, publications or web-based content may be reproduced in any form or referred to in any other publication without express written permission of Universal Orbit © 2021 and David B. Kleinberg.

Monday, September 6, 2021

U/O Applied Indexation …a brief tutorial.


In advance: ‘<U/O> Applied Indexation …a brief tutorial.’ voiceover slide show is currently posted without restriction (click here) to illustrate benchmark analysis and proprietary Alpha/Alpha-Beta screening via business segment operations, utilizing publicly-sourced Clean Energy Subindustry Benchmark ETF PBW to create a combined Renewables/Diversified Industrials/Technology sector-themed overlay (10 segments, 52 classifications, 66 single and multi-listed component members, 201 placements).

3Q21 PBW -16.8%, CY21 YTD -27.3%; YTD performance dispersion: +247.2%/-79.4% (100821).

PBW Fwd (adj.) PE=33.2 Beta=1.4 versus 34.1/1.4, 34.0/1.3, 33.4/1.3, and 27.0/1.3 sequentially. SPX 12-month Fwd PE=20.5 v. 21.4/Q2, 21.8/Q1 (FactSet); CAPE 37.9 from 38.6/37.6/34.9/31.7, mean 16.9 (Shiller).

Investable motifs for complementary long/short portfolio strategies: conventional, thematic, megatrend, equity/corporates, value/growth and factor-based.

Please message direct for product suite access and product development considerations.


www.universalorbit.com

___________________________________________________________________

Appendix:

To advance analysis, needed is a reconciliation of specific business segment operations among representative component members apart from the general sector designations presented in standard fund reporting.

At Venn’s intersection, sets and subsets of competing interests endure. Proprietary research suggests its dynamic principle in relation to business segment operations is three-fold: 1) multinational and Large-cap companies function as benchmark sector/industry/subindustry proxies based on scale and business segment operations, 2) Small- and Mid-cap companies compete as peers and are delineated by business segment operations and 3) among subsets of 1) and 2) are vendors provisioning multiple economic sectors, asset classes and geographies. Successful trading strategies (systematic, momentum, thematic) isolate Value in Growth by not overlooking the prospective Alpha drivers directly associated with ecosystem and supply chain verticals or profiles of Small- and Mid-cap companies functioning as competitive peers and, hence, acquisition candidates.

From a portfolio management perspective, designing strategies based on business segment operations lends the advantage of iterative index applications by exploiting the inefficiencies in third party data nomenclature assignments which inevitability skew peer group analytics and valuation. While means and methods vary of course, a latticed framework—gleaned from competitive market information, built by segments/classifications, interpolated for integrity—exhibits the proportionality revealed by business segment operation considerations and distinguishes differentiated growth rates beyond simple revenue line aggregation. Additionally, a developed thesis for security selection in the Energy complex incorporates: 1) a barbell to CAPE as an extrapolation, 2) a barbell of Cleantech to Diversified Industrials as a foundation and 3) a barbell of Value to Growth implicit in corporate anatomy.

Common portfolio position weight allocations (0.5% < x < 5.0%) may be aligned consistent with long/short peak-to-trough cyclical/counter-cyclical exposures and emerging technologies among individual and multi-listed component members. Importantly, often discarded negative PE companies are included to capture points of inflection for cash flow growth and forward earnings momentum. In the end, a structure of analysis in the Energy complex is borne from the examination of business segment operations within diverse companies across economic sectors and asset classes plus, on a standalone basis, competitive peers—by definition, Alpha is singular.





Forward looking statements, estimates and certain information contained herein are based upon proprietary and non-proprietary research and other sources. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but are not assured as to accuracy. Past performance is not indicative of future results. There is neither representation nor warranty as to the current accuracy of, nor liability for, decisions based on such information. This content is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investing advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investment product. The author's opinions are subject to change without notice. No part of this product, related articles, publications or web-based content may be reproduced in any form or referred to in any other publication without express written permission of Universal Orbit © 2021 and David B. Kleinberg.